33 replies to this topic

[Bone Marrow]

This place is a bit dead at the moment which is a shame, I enjoy reading boxing discussion here. So, just something to discuss for the sake of it:

Name guys who are active and have a decent resume but not quite good enough to make the HOF yet. And what realistic career paths could earn them a resume worthy of induction, not first ballot, just somewhere down the road. I was mainly thinking about guys nearing the end of their careers but name whoever you like.

I dont know that much about HOF criteria so I'll just throw a few names out there to get started:

Tomasz Adamek
Antonio Tarver
Chad Dawson
Carl Froch
Mikkel Kessler
Sergio Martinez
Felix Sturm
Paul Williams
Vic Darchinian
Joseph Agbeko

Could any of these guys make the HOF and what additional victories would it take?

[Butters]

I think Tarver will make it, and probably Dawson, if he just were to fight some more. The Europeans/other foreigners will get HOF status in their respective countries, but probably wont make it into the IBHOF.

Though, if Adamek were to win a HW title, you could probably make the case for him. Martinez could also make it.

[Bone Marrow]

Butters, on 12 April 2012 - 05:18 AM, said:

I think Tarver will make it, and probably Dawson, if he just were to fight some more. The Europeans/other foreigners will get HOF status in their respective countries, but probably wont make it into the IBHOF.

Though, if Adamek were to win a HW title, you could probably make the case for him. Martinez could also make it.

Froch isnt that far off I would think. Say he wins at least one of the two Bute fights, wins a rematch with Kessler and makes a run at 175 an picks up a title from Pascal or Cloud, maybe outhustle a declining Hopkins. In the meantime Cleverly and Groves have probably become much bigger names and he could make a UK showdown with either in fights that are both winnable. If he pulls that one off, or just some of it, he should definitely go to the HOF.
Kessler could try the same path but I think he would be less likely to pull it off. He must stay away from movers like Ward, Dirrel and Dawson. And Hopkins too. Hypothetically, say Kessler beats Froch and Bute at 168 (after the two of them split fights) and then beats Pascal and Cloud at 175 and then calls it a day. Would that be enough to get him into the HOF?

[Butters]

Bone Marrow, on 12 April 2012 - 06:28 AM, said:

Froch isnt that far off I would think. Say he wins at least one of the two Bute fights, wins a rematch with Kessler and makes a run at 175 an picks up a title from Pascal or Cloud, maybe outhustle a declining Hopkins. In the meantime Cleverly and Groves have probably become much bigger names and he could make a UK showdown with either in fights that are both winnable. If he pulls that one off, or just some of it, he should definitely go to the HOF.
Kessler could try the same path but I think he would be less likely to pull it off. He must stay away from movers like Ward, Dirrel and Dawson. And Hopkins too. Hypothetically, say Kessler beats Froch and Bute at 168 (after the two of them split fights) and then beats Pascal and Cloud at 175 and then calls it a day. Would that be enough to get him into the HOF?

Those are very big "IF's". Of course there's a chance they would make it, but I wouldnt bet on it (Kessler has some eye issue and hasnt really looked that good). Bigger chance that Bute beats the crap out of everyone around and makes it.

[walk with me]

this reminds me of this NBA hof thread on another forum...


NBA is falling off so when the players now retire the HOF is going to look shitty, I see the same situation here.

[Bone Marrow]

Butters, on 12 April 2012 - 06:32 AM, said:

Those are very big "IF's". Of course there's a chance they would make it, but I wouldnt bet on it (Kessler has some eye issue and hasnt really looked that good). Bigger chance that Bute beats the crap out of everyone around and makes it.

I disagree about Bute but you are right that it is big IF's, especially in the Kessler scenario, but each of the fights I mentioned are winnable. If he fought Ward he would get schooled worse than the first fight. I wouldnt give him a 5% chance to win, maybe 1% if I were drunk. But in each of the fights I mentioned I would give him 30%-50% chance of winning. This was what I was thinking, imagine you are the fighters promoter and your job is to get him into the HOF. Come up with a sequence of fights that the fighter could win all of and that would gain him entrance. If you dont think there is a way he could, with reasonable chance, make it, then fair enough. Just curious to hear how far people think certain fighters are from the HOF.

[prodigious1]

My standards for HOF are pretty low because of the sacrifice involved in boxing.

How about Cotto?

[walk with me]

cotto is 100% in

[kc40]

Cotto's run until he was hit by the Margarito plaster train already brought him to fringe HOF level, but since then he hasn't garnered a
signature win (not sure if beating one-eyed Marg secures it for him, but a good showing against Floyd will).

Tarver will probably make it, as will Martinez.  Dawson, Adamek, and Froch have also a decent chance if they add a couple of signature wins (Adamek is the closest of them because of his decent runs as light heavyweight and cruiserweight).. But then again, who knows, this is very arbitrary stuff.

[Butters]

Bone Marrow, on 12 April 2012 - 07:36 AM, said:

I disagree about Bute but you are right that it is big IF's, especially in the Kessler scenario, but each of the fights I mentioned are winnable. If he fought Ward he would get schooled worse than the first fight. I wouldnt give him a 5% chance to win, maybe 1% if I were drunk. But in each of the fights I mentioned I would give him 30%-50% chance of winning. This was what I was thinking, imagine you are the fighters promoter and your job is to get him into the HOF. Come up with a sequence of fights that the fighter could win all of and that would gain him entrance. If you dont think there is a way he could, with reasonable chance, make it, then fair enough. Just curious to hear how far people think certain fighters are from the HOF.

The likely hood of that happening in Kesslers case, if he has a 50/50 shot in all those fights (though, he'd be an underdog in all of them), is a 6,25% chance of happening. Same chance for Froch with the scenario you described.

Dont hold your breath for it. Though, it would be damn impressive.

[YellowLorrySlow]

Chad Dawson

[perfectjet]

Is vic a lock to get in?

[walk with me]

how about zab judah ? lol

[Bone Marrow]

Butters, on 12 April 2012 - 12:13 PM, said:

The likely hood of that happening in Kesslers case, if he has a 50/50 shot in all those fights (though, he'd be an underdog in all of them), is a 6,25% chance of happening. Same chance for Froch with the scenario you described.

Dont hold your breath for it. Though, it would be damn impressive.

The math is correct if you assume the odds on the fights are independent of each other but one should be careful reading too much into such probabilities. An example; Take Floyd and say that on average the chance of him winning each of his fights has been 95% (which I think is a slight exaggeration). The probability that he goes 42-0 is then close to 1%. Or as you said, chances are better that Bute beats everyone, so lets say Bute has 75% chance of beating each of Froch, Kess, Cloud and Pascal. That gives him around 30% chance of getting 4W's in that sequence, or in other words, the probability that he doesnt pull it off is twice the probability that he does. What do you think the probability was that Froch would beat Pascal, Taylor, Dirrel, Abraham and Johnson? So first off, you need to beat some pretty bad odds to accumulate HOF credentials, and second, one shouldnt read too much into such probability calculations as they are only vague approximations.

But, anyways, I didnt think of this thread as an exercise in calculating probabilities, rather just a game of trying to find a dooable path into the HOF for fighters who are close already.

I mean its no fun if you start talking about K9 Bundrage making the HOF by moving down to 147 and beating Pac and Floyd cause that aint happening in any universe. Should be someone who has a chance.

kc40, on 12 April 2012 - 10:48 AM, said:

Cotto's run until he was hit by the Margarito plaster train already brought him to fringe HOF level, but since then he hasn't garnered a signature win (not sure if beating one-eyed Marg secures it for him, but a good showing against Floyd will). Tarver will probably make it, as will Martinez. Dawson, Adamek, and Froch have also a decent chance if they add a couple of signature wins (Adamek is the closest of them because of his decent runs as light heavyweight and cruiserweight).. But then again, who knows, this is very arbitrary stuff.

Good take on Cotto, it adds to his chances that he has done his work over three weight classes. What signature wins do you think would take Martinez, Dawson and Adamek in? I know its arbitrary stuff because the value of a victory depends on how the loser of that fight does afterwards. There is a reason people say a fighters resume should only be evaluated after he retires and even better 5-10 years later. Thats why I mentioned ageing fighters mostly because its easier to rate their current resumes.

For example, if Dawson beats Hopkins and retires, will he make the HOF? If not, then what If he beats Hops + Pascal and then retires? Or Hops + 2xPascal (rematch and rubbermatch)?

[kc40]

If he beats both Pascal and Hopkins, Dawson would be HOF material for sure (I think he will beat both).  Hopefully he will end up fighting a Bute or a Ward afterward.   Also, in retrospect his Adamek win looks very good.  

With Adamek it is tricky, his best wins are against Cunningham. Bell, and perhaps Arreola, C. being the more important win.  If Adamek beats Chambers and stays in the heavyweight mix he could have a chance, but I am not too sure about that.

Martinez's run at jr middle and middleweight has been excellent, but he needs perhaps one more elite name to secure HOF status (not sure that a JCC Jr win would equal that, a win against Geale would look better in his resume but then again Geale is not a "name" for most; that division is the pits; a win against the winner of Floyd/Cotto would definitely put him there, but what are the possibilities of that happening?).

[boyakasha!]

walk with me, on 12 April 2012 - 05:29 PM, said:

how about zab judah ? lol

He'll get your vote.  That's for sure.

[prodigious1]

Adamek will get in. Entertaining fighter who was champ at cruiser and had a belt at lt heavy...

Also doesn't hurt that he's a Polish great. When you're the greatest or one of the best ever from a country that doesn't have a history of producing champions, the HOF is easier. Kostya Tszyu- first ballot, is a recent example.

Vic gets in, too. I wouldn't mind a bit. Being Armenian and Australian doesn't hurt his chances.

[kc40]

prodigious1, on 13 April 2012 - 07:54 AM, said:

<br />
Adamek will get in. Entertaining fighter who was champ at cruiser and had a belt at lt heavy...

Also doesn't hurt that he's a Polish great. When you're the greatest or one of the best ever from a country that doesn't have a history of producing champions, the HOF is easier. Kostya Tszyu- first ballot, is a recent example.

Vic gets in, too. I wouldn't mind a bit. Being Armenian and Australian doesn't hurt his chances.

Good point about the nationality variable ;Both Adamek and Vic have the advantages also of moving up in weight and at least being competitive against elite opponents.;Their styles and persona also make them more attractive.

What then with somebody like Chris John, who has been able to be an undefeated long-time champ but does not have an excellent win except for the JMM robbery? ;He should get in if he retires undefeated, but since the JMM and his fights against Juarez what top ten fighter has he fought?;He is fighting another middling fighter in a month, Shoji Kimura.

Edited by kc40, 13 April 2012 - 08:59 AM.

[RAWDOGG69STYLE]

Tarver fought tha best and beat the best he is a MF...if he defeats Kayode shit is like a cherry on top of his resume!

[Butters]

Bone Marrow, on 13 April 2012 - 04:46 AM, said:

The math is correct if you assume the odds on the fights are independent of each other but one should be careful reading too much into such probabilities. An example; Take Floyd and say that on average the chance of him winning each of his fights has been 95% (which I think is a slight exaggeration). The probability that he goes 42-0 is then close to 1%. Or as you said, chances are better that Bute beats everyone, so lets say Bute has 75% chance of beating each of Froch, Kess, Cloud and Pascal. That gives him around 30% chance of getting 4W's in that sequence, or in other words, the probability that he doesnt pull it off is twice the probability that he does. What do you think the probability was that Froch would beat Pascal, Taylor, Dirrel, Abraham and Johnson? So first off, you need to beat some pretty bad odds to accumulate HOF credentials, and second, one shouldnt read too much into such probability calculations as they are only vague approximations.

But, anyways, I didnt think of this thread as an exercise in calculating probabilities, rather just a game of trying to find a dooable path into the HOF for fighters who are close already.

I mean its no fun if you start talking about K9 Bundrage making the HOF by moving down to 147 and beating Pac and Floyd cause that aint happening in any universe. Should be someone who has a chance.

Yeah, but having all that left, I dont see them as "borderline HOFers".

[SenseFullViolence]

Good topic.  And we must point out that we're talking about it using the current standards.

b/c otherwise I would call both Klits borderline HOF, as opposed to being slam dunk in, bc the HOF has a hard on for HWs

As much as I like Adamek, IMO he'll only get in if he has some more HW success (see above rule).  His run at CW was good, and he was lineal, THE MAN at CW, etc, but USS isnt really a big name.  LOL, but he gets more run for beating fat Arreola than that.  A title at HW prob gets Adamek in.

Chad's resume right now is borderline, looks better on paper than in reality (Adamek wasnt that good yet, Traver & Glen on backside of career), but beating an old ass semi-geriatric Hops will probably get him in.  I also have high hopes for Chad in his continuing career.

Traver is lucky that he ran into a fading RJJ, as that will get him in.  Im not dissing Traver (even tho I like to), he had some good wins at LHW, but nothing else too impressive (altho I thought he beat Glencoffe twice) and the only other HOF fighters he faced spanked his ass.  His post Chad career has been meh IMO.

Cotto's high profile will get him in, but I can see him being merely borderline.  Besides Shane, Zab?, Clothead? where are his good wins.  Even discounting the Marg loss to cheating.  Really, he'll get in for giving Pac (and hopefully Money) a good fight.

I love Froch, but he'll need to go on a run to get in.  Very nice wins at SMW, but for each good win, it seems like there is a loss as well.  Esp if Bute beats him.

Bute's chances (if he beats Froch, his first good win) will hinge on if he can beat Ward

I dont see Kess getting in.  He lost his two biggest fights.

I think Sergio will get in just b/c he was THE MAN, and a dominant one, in the classic MW division.  Nice wins over PWill, Pav & dominance at MW = HOF, irrespective of another good win

I love Vic, but I dont see him getting in.  And i dont think he should get in, even tho I always try to counteract the bias against little guys.  When he stepped up to elite talent, he lost.

I dont think PWill gets in, not enough good wins to counteract getting KTFO and then falling the fuck off.

I would be the only dude to vote Zab in.

[SenseFullViolence]

How about Ironboy?  IMO, his dominance at straw (some OK wins there, too bad little guys never unify) and the Cazares wins get him in, im MY HOF, dont know about the actual HOF

He may be too good to be borderline - Rafa Marquez should get in.  Dominance at bantie (even tho it was unrecognized by the Ring -- there was the Thai champ, but they were essentially in separate spheres).  The great series w. Izzy, good wins over Austin, even over the fading Too Sharp

Oh, and maybe the WV2 win puts Arce in the conversation.  If he had not fucked around fighting stiffs during the meaty part of his career, maybe he could get it, but the answer is no.

Hotpants too inconsistent.  that Too Sharp loss really set him back.  If he had still fairly sharp Too Sharp on his ledger (and he could have beat the old dude if he just tried), maybe a different story.

Im assuming Wongjongkam is a def in, and Hasegawa is a no.

He's not active - but what about Izzy.  He's the one dude I cant call it.  Great fights against Larios (and he edged him), great series against Rafa.. Jhonny win.  always fun.  Fuk it, he gave us too many thrills, I say he's in.

Edited by SenseFullViolence, 13 April 2012 - 10:59 AM.

[Butters]

Rafa and Izzy should both get in. They are awsome. End of story.

[prodigious1]

Most perfect trilogy in boxing history.

Yes, I said "trilogy".

[YellowLorrySlow]

Adamek won't come close to getting in, even by today's watered down standards.

[Spud]

Shane will get in. Not sure if he'd be considered borderline or not.

[prodigious1]

Especially after he rocks Canelo.

[YellowLorrySlow]

Spud, on 13 April 2012 - 04:58 PM, said:

Shane will get in. Not sure if he'd be considered borderline or not.

Shane is first ballot unless he runs into a Holyfield/Morales/Barrera trifecta.

[DetroitMex]

Jorge Arce should get in.

[boyakasha!]

The avg post in this thread is 3.56 miles long.